Twenty–twenty four will be remembered as a year when independent films reigned supreme. Of the 10 Academy Award nominees for Best Picture––Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked––seven are indie flicks. The races have been competitive throughout awards season, setting the stage for some exciting Oscar showdowns on Sunday. Here’s my breakdown of the eight premier categories.

Best Picture

This category is sullied by the presence of Wicked. The film lacks emotional depth, the storyline is drawn out, and the acting is basic. I’m in the extreme minority with this opinion, but for me, the movie is a whole lot of pomp with little circumstance. It’s tragic not to have A Real Pain, Sing Sing, or September 5 nominated in its place.

The state of this race is heated among three juggernauts. Anora is a dramedy sensation about a crew of Russian fixers who meet their match in a feisty stripper from Brooklyn. This Keystone cop crusade has depth of heart with humor that tickles and an ending that lands a gut–punch. The Brutalist is a post–war masterpiece about the harsh realities of assimilation as a European immigrant and Holocaust survivor tries to establish himself in America. He attempts to navigate the pressures of creating art all the while being exploited by consumers and dealing with the trauma of his past. Conclave is a political thriller that takes audiences into the mysterious process of electing a new pope. As the process draws long, rumors swirl and secrets are revealed culminating in an explosive finale no one sees coming.

Anora has taken home a Critics’ Choice Award, Producers Guild Award and Film Independent Spirit Award. The Brutalist was awarded the Golden Globe. Conclave won the BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild award for Best Cast Ensemble.

My prediction: Anora

My preference: Anora

Best Actress

This is a competitive, two–woman race between Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance). Madison is a powerhouse as Ani, a stripper who stumbles into a fairytale–turned–nightmare. She may appear naïve, but Ani is mighty enough to brutalize a Russian hoodlum and take an oligarch to task. Madison’s performance is an illustration of tenacity, pain, and vulnerability. Moore is transformative as Elizabeth Sparkle, a renowned fitness instructor who has been aged out of celebrity status, but is desperate to remain in the spotlight. She begins living between two versions of herself and suffers from a violent internal dialogue. Moore translates every thought and emotion terrorizing Elizabeth as she surrenders bodily autonomy to a vicious prey.

Moore became the early favorite nabbing wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Madison then took home the BAFTA and Spirit Award before Moore came back with a win at the SAGs.

My prediction: Demi Moore

My preference: Mikey Madison

Best Actor

It seemed Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) had a straight path to Oscar after winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, and BAFTA, but Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) shook up the race with a win at the SAG awards last Sunday.

Brody delivers the most layered performance of the year as Hungarian architect Laszlo Toth, who rebuilds his life in post–war America after surviving the Holocaust. His struggles to maintain pride and artistic integrity are palpable as he becomes powerless under the commission of a wealthy landowner. Ultimately, Laszlo’s uses his trauma as inspiration for the mighty brutalist structure he erects.

Chalamet doesn’t deliver a portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, he becomes the legend. His performance pulls audiences into the 1960s Greenwich Village folk scene where musicians turned tumult into poetry. Chalamet humanizes Dylan by putting the man’s moodiness, drive, and romanticism on full display.

My prediction: Adrien Brody

My preference: Adrien Brody

Best Director

This race pits Sean Baker (Anora) against Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) in a clash of artistic styles. Baker takes an exploratory dive into human relationships with Anora. The movie is a fast–paced rendezvous through the streets of New York City that underscores the power imbalance within the class system. The film has a softness woven into its intensity, and Baker destigmatizes sex work by forcing audiences to sympathize with an unlikely heroine.

Brutalism is an architectural style that symbolizes resilience, adaptation, and the artistic power of pain. Corbet uses his camera to translate these themes by illuminating the beauty hidden within devastation. He utilizes powerful imagery, giving audiences a sensory experience throughout this epic story of survival.

Corbet jumped out as the early favorite with wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Then, Baker won the esteemed Directors Guild Award ahead of Corbet’s win at the BAFTAs.

My prediction: Brady Corbet

My preference: Brady Corbet

Best Supporting Actress

With the exception of Ariana Grande (Wicked), who should be kicked off this list and replaced with Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez), this category showcases stunning performances. Monica Barbarbo softens the edges of Timothee Chalamet’s Bob Dylan with her portrayal of Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. Her on–screen metamorphosis captures the appearance, mannerisms, and musical skills of the folk icon. In The Brutalist, Felicity Jones is compelling as Erzesbet, a woman who becomes physically disabled after suffering a famine in a Nazi concentration camp, then rises like a Phoenix. She makes a living in a man’s world, and she’s the only person with enough defiance to confront a torturous villain and save her husband. Isabella Rossellini portrays Sister Agnes, a nun working in the Vatican during the election of a new pope. She’s quiet and dutiful in her service until the immorality she’s witnessing forces her to become the most visible person in the room, turning the selection process on its head. As Rita in Emilia Perez, Zoe Saldana delivers one of the most demonstrative performances of the year. Rita abandons work at an exploitative law firm and paves her own path to purpose and nobility.

Saldana has cleaned house at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and SAGs. The final statuette is awaiting her on Sunday.

My prediction: Zoe Saldana

My preference: Zoe Saldana

Best Supporting Actor

These nominees personified their roles as supporting characters by elevating the performance of every other actor in their respective films. In Anora, Yura Borisov portrays Russian fixer Igor who emerges as a yin to Ani’s (Mikey Madison) yang. His tenderness and humorous charm offer her an anchor she didn’t know she needed. Kieran Culkin delivers a multidimensional performance as Benji in A Real Pain. He is the emotional core of the film with his engulfing spirit, unexpected outbursts, and a hidden torture tempered within. In The Brutalist, Guy Pearce is transfixing as Harrison Van Buren. He delivers a Jekyll and Hyde performance that induces mental whiplash. Edward Norton’s portrayal of Pete Seger in A Complete Unknown is endearing. Amid the rousing 60s and the artists with whom he’s surrounded, Pete provides a necessary source of calm. As attorney Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, Jeremy Strong commands every scene in which he appears. Cohn is one of the most despicable figures in American history and Strong captures the man’s demonic disposition with haunting precision.

Like Saldana, Culkin has swept the pre-Oscar awards shows, and his acceptance speech on Sunday is sure to be entertaining.

My prediction: Kieran Culkin

My preference: Kieran Culkin

Best Original Screenplay

This category is a three-way race among a trio of vastly different screenplays. Sean Baker scripts a doomed love affair chock full of comedic banter and profound emotion with Anora. He takes audiences on a cinematic thrill ride eliciting fear, enchantment, laughter and heartache. With A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg composes a sentimental tale of two cousins with his love letter to Poland. His storytelling is substantial and relatable with complex dialogue and layered character development. Coralie Fargeat’s horror saga, The Substance, is a an insane exploration into themes of ageism, sexism and self–perception. Through the exploitative gaze of the fitness industry, the film delves into “the old guard syndrome,” demonstrating how the young consume the old as they rise to power.

Fargeat was awarded the Critics’ Choice Award, then Sean Baker took him the Writers Guild Award before Jesse Eisenberg’s snagged the BAFTA, making this the toughest race to pick.

My prediction: Sean Baker

My preference: Sean Baker

Best Adapted Screenplay

The films in this category are highly stylized. Peter Straughn’s Conclave is a pressure cooker of mystery and intrigue that exposes a papal conclave as a vat of lies and deception. With A Complete Unknown, James Mangold and Jay Cocks define the enigma that is Bob Dylan by capturing the humanity of the artistic genius. Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez is part musical fantasia, part thriller, and part romance drama with nuanced humor sprinkled throughout. With Nickel Boys, RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes script a piece of poetry that tells a story of friendship and survival amid a world of violence. Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley use authenticity to demonstrate the redemptive power of art and its ability to heal and transform with Sing Sing.

Peter Straughn has taken home a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, and BAFTA. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes were awarded the Writers Guild Award.

My prediction: Peter Straughn

My preference: Jacques Audiard